Labor Migration and Its Causes for Governance: Modeling the Intensity of Threat Impact through a Proposed Methodological Approach: The Example of Ukraine, Within the Periods Before and During COVID-19 and Military Operations

Abstract

The conducted research is characterized by the originality and complexity of the approach due to the initial consideration of the phenomenon of labor migration from the position of one that has a global nature, significantly affects the dynamics of the world economy and increases in scale and is determined by a number of advantages and threats, and subsequently the generalizations made were used for mathematical modeling. It is proved that labor migration should be considered at least at two levels, that is, the state and each individual who is forced to participate in such processes under certain circumstances. It is specified that we are talking about a number of advantages, but also threats that arise and change due to the influence of key factors at each of the indicated levels. It is substantiated that it is the threats that require attention, the impact of which can become significant, and therefore harm the achievement of a positive effect. The modeling conducted on the basis of real data on Ukraine, which occupies a leading position among labor-exporting countries, over three time periods, i.e. before 2019, from 2019 to 2021, when COVID-19 dominated, and from 2022, as the beginning of a new phase of the military conflict with the Russian Federation, generally made it possible to track the change in the level of impact of threats associated with labor migration. The results obtained can serve as the necessary information basis for making changes in state policy not only in Ukraine, but also in other countries, as well as for each labor migrant to take action to reduce current threats.